The focus turned East during October
Average power prices set a new record high in October. In the month, they averaged €222 per mWh, up 320% on the same period in 2020 and 7% on the previous month. Prices have remained at historically and unseasonably high values not ever seen before.
Gas making record highs
Day ahead Gas prices continued their seemingly non stop spiral to record highs
Prices reached a peak of 277p/th on 5th October. Thankfully, they retreated in the latter few days of the month, on news that Vladimir Putin ordered Gasprom to commence deliveries of gas to Europe.
October did see the wind blowing
Specifically, the outturn in October arose for the following reasons:
- Positively, wind generation contributed 35% of the generation mix, up 75% on September.
- However, Renewable generation in 2021 is still at multi-year lows
Outages in Ireland improving
Unscheduled Outages remain at some key CCGT generation plants (e.g. Whitegate 440MW,Huntstown 400MW).
However, the outage picture improved in late October into November.
Gas
- LNG deliveries to Europe remained weak due to strong demand and better prices available in Asia, but picked up towards month end.
- European storage just 75% full, almost 16 percentage points below 5 year average.
- Russian gas exports remain low for the month as Gasprom is prioritising domestic storage firstly.
- Positively, on 28 October, Vladimir Putin announced order to Gasprom to commence replenishing European storage from 8 November.
Carbon
- Carbon prices yo-yo’d around €60/tonne level in October
Coal
- Coal prices increased further as increasing gas prices has brought coal based generation higher in the merit order for power.
12 months forward prices continue to increase each month in 2021
Why?
- On going support for gas prices as gas storage levels in Europe are replenished albeit at a slow pace.
- Poor gas imports from Russia
- High gas demand in Asia
- Significantly, continued outages in key Irish power stations are expected to continue throughout 2021.
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